The Chiefs prevail in overtime in a virtually even game. Let's dissect the performances, dispel misconceptions about the new OT rules, and criticize coaching decisions
Interesting point you bring up at the end on running on third down. I hadn't seen the numbers, but have always thought it was strange that third and short-medium are so often treated as clear passing downs. I suppose we don't know what they would have done given a variety of outcomes of 0-4 yards, it is possible they would kick on anything but 4th and 1 even if that's not the right decision. So given that line of thinking teams probably think of that situation as first down or nothing.
It's also important to point out that on both those drives they had a strong play on first down, and got 0 yards on second (PA pass to the flat and then a run). Those plays seemed to be the "right" call, but then on third down it retreats to a more predictable call. So SF went from very favorable situations in a high leverage moment to being "forced" to throw.
Do you have the numbers on how successful the run games were without the fumbles? I have seen a few places that are saying SF should have run more. Maybe that's the case, but KC was seemingly setting up to stop the run on early downs. CMC also 30 touches (22 rush and 8 pass). So not sure if they are advocating for Elijah Mitchell to get more carries. Seemed to me the bigger issue was not being able to get Aiyuk, Samuel, and especially Kittle involved significantly until late in the game.
Not all “analytics” are equal, so trying to impress readers by carrying on about those stats that have nothing to do with the discussion seems to be about arguing from authority. Not impressed
As for the decision to receive first, it’s a bad argument that letting KC and Mahomes know what they have to do to win, and giving them 4 downs instead of 3 to do it,is a wise move. This is not a regular game. It’s Mahomes at QB in the SB. And there isn’t going to be any third possession if both teams score a TD because Reid and Mahomes are going for the 2 point conversion. That’s what you do in the situation when Mahomes is your QB.
So, all of the other meaningless “analytics” have nothing to do with this. It was a mistake for SF to receive the ball. Shanahan made a mistake, and he didn’t get away with it.
I guess I don't see "It’s Mahomes at QB in the SB" as an entirely different scenario than Mahomes and the Chiefs at any other time, or only with marginal changes in assumptions. Going into this season, Mahomes' numbers were roughly the same in the playoffs versus regular season, worse in Super Bowls.
If Mahomes can supposedly turn it up *so far* in the most important situations, how do you explain that Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, in the second most important game of each season, have scored 13 points on 19 drives in the second half and OT of Conference Championships the last three years? That's one TD and two field goals in 19 (!!) drives. Equal number of turnovers as scores. Shouldn't he and the offense be super dialed in for those situations?
Teams don’t remain the same throughout the season. Some teams win early in the season because they are better prepared than their opponents. Tom Landry always had his teams ready to play at the start, and his September record allowed the Cowboys to make the playoffs even though opponents had caught up to them. The cowboys “stole” a couple games early but were not always great at playoff time. At the end of the season, it is more likely to have the championship game in any sport be between teams who improved (or maintained a top statistical position) during the latter half of the season. Nothing is immutable, but this is usually what occurs.
Reid also has an exceptional record when he has extra time to prepare, especially an extra week. Mahomes is probably already the GOAT.
Mahomes in the SB is a also very different proposition than Mahomes in any other game. Extra prep time (for a coach who has demonstrated over the years that he has an advantage with it), extreme focus by a team that has recent SB experience and is less likely to get rattled by the big stage.
As for Mahomes not scoring much in the last 3 conference championships, I have not looked it up, but it’s a tiny sample size, could be opponent or weather induced. Or, maybe just a statistical fluke. All stats should also be opponent adjusted, as much as theoretically possible. Handicapping is an art, not a science, even if math is dominant.
As for Mahomes numbers being worse in SB’s, one needs only to look at the difference between the 1h of the Eagles SB and the second half. Massive turnaround in the stats. It’s not just about Mahomes. Coaching adjustments are critical. KC was very strong in second halves in the final 7-8 games of the season. They were an improving team. The chiefs won the second half against SF, too. Small sample size, but there’s a pattern of very good second half adjustments
If SF does not score or kicks a fg on first OT possession, giving mahomes extra downs to score at least a FG cannot be the right decision. If SF scores a TD, mahomes has 4 downs all the way (That, alone, would seem to make Shanahan’s decision incorrect) and if the chiefs get a TD, they would certainly go for 2, and that has to be advantage Mahomes and KC. Shanahan made a mistake. I can’t quantify how big a mistake it was, since the sample size is 1 game, and there are always honest arguments to be made about specific plays, referee calls (non calls), but I would bet very heavily that Shanahan would not make the same decision with a “do over.” And he won’t make the same decision if he again finds himself in OT in the playoffs
Interesting point you bring up at the end on running on third down. I hadn't seen the numbers, but have always thought it was strange that third and short-medium are so often treated as clear passing downs. I suppose we don't know what they would have done given a variety of outcomes of 0-4 yards, it is possible they would kick on anything but 4th and 1 even if that's not the right decision. So given that line of thinking teams probably think of that situation as first down or nothing.
It's also important to point out that on both those drives they had a strong play on first down, and got 0 yards on second (PA pass to the flat and then a run). Those plays seemed to be the "right" call, but then on third down it retreats to a more predictable call. So SF went from very favorable situations in a high leverage moment to being "forced" to throw.
Do you have the numbers on how successful the run games were without the fumbles? I have seen a few places that are saying SF should have run more. Maybe that's the case, but KC was seemingly setting up to stop the run on early downs. CMC also 30 touches (22 rush and 8 pass). So not sure if they are advocating for Elijah Mitchell to get more carries. Seemed to me the bigger issue was not being able to get Aiyuk, Samuel, and especially Kittle involved significantly until late in the game.
Not all “analytics” are equal, so trying to impress readers by carrying on about those stats that have nothing to do with the discussion seems to be about arguing from authority. Not impressed
As for the decision to receive first, it’s a bad argument that letting KC and Mahomes know what they have to do to win, and giving them 4 downs instead of 3 to do it,is a wise move. This is not a regular game. It’s Mahomes at QB in the SB. And there isn’t going to be any third possession if both teams score a TD because Reid and Mahomes are going for the 2 point conversion. That’s what you do in the situation when Mahomes is your QB.
So, all of the other meaningless “analytics” have nothing to do with this. It was a mistake for SF to receive the ball. Shanahan made a mistake, and he didn’t get away with it.
I guess I don't see "It’s Mahomes at QB in the SB" as an entirely different scenario than Mahomes and the Chiefs at any other time, or only with marginal changes in assumptions. Going into this season, Mahomes' numbers were roughly the same in the playoffs versus regular season, worse in Super Bowls.
If Mahomes can supposedly turn it up *so far* in the most important situations, how do you explain that Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, in the second most important game of each season, have scored 13 points on 19 drives in the second half and OT of Conference Championships the last three years? That's one TD and two field goals in 19 (!!) drives. Equal number of turnovers as scores. Shouldn't he and the offense be super dialed in for those situations?
Teams don’t remain the same throughout the season. Some teams win early in the season because they are better prepared than their opponents. Tom Landry always had his teams ready to play at the start, and his September record allowed the Cowboys to make the playoffs even though opponents had caught up to them. The cowboys “stole” a couple games early but were not always great at playoff time. At the end of the season, it is more likely to have the championship game in any sport be between teams who improved (or maintained a top statistical position) during the latter half of the season. Nothing is immutable, but this is usually what occurs.
Reid also has an exceptional record when he has extra time to prepare, especially an extra week. Mahomes is probably already the GOAT.
Mahomes in the SB is a also very different proposition than Mahomes in any other game. Extra prep time (for a coach who has demonstrated over the years that he has an advantage with it), extreme focus by a team that has recent SB experience and is less likely to get rattled by the big stage.
As for Mahomes not scoring much in the last 3 conference championships, I have not looked it up, but it’s a tiny sample size, could be opponent or weather induced. Or, maybe just a statistical fluke. All stats should also be opponent adjusted, as much as theoretically possible. Handicapping is an art, not a science, even if math is dominant.
As for Mahomes numbers being worse in SB’s, one needs only to look at the difference between the 1h of the Eagles SB and the second half. Massive turnaround in the stats. It’s not just about Mahomes. Coaching adjustments are critical. KC was very strong in second halves in the final 7-8 games of the season. They were an improving team. The chiefs won the second half against SF, too. Small sample size, but there’s a pattern of very good second half adjustments
If SF does not score or kicks a fg on first OT possession, giving mahomes extra downs to score at least a FG cannot be the right decision. If SF scores a TD, mahomes has 4 downs all the way (That, alone, would seem to make Shanahan’s decision incorrect) and if the chiefs get a TD, they would certainly go for 2, and that has to be advantage Mahomes and KC. Shanahan made a mistake. I can’t quantify how big a mistake it was, since the sample size is 1 game, and there are always honest arguments to be made about specific plays, referee calls (non calls), but I would bet very heavily that Shanahan would not make the same decision with a “do over.” And he won’t make the same decision if he again finds himself in OT in the playoffs
pain