I've pushed back a bit on some of your Fields analysis in large part due to how abysmal his supporting cast was this year. Purdy is obviously on the other end of that extreme, so it's fitting to me they're right next to each other in AQE, lol.
Dropping Purdy from 2nd to 15th seems quite reasonable, if not a bit conservative. It looks like his downward adjustment is twice as large as any QB other than Garoppolo, which really highlights how far the 49ers' environment is ahead of every other team.
Do you have AQE at the game level? My hunch says Purdy vs Seattle last week was the luckiest/most assisted game by any QB this season.
Danny Dimes quietly into the top 3 now... I don't know if that's sustainable but he's been better than anyone could have reasonably expected.
Here's the problem with this: it doesn't take into account missed opportunities on open WRs, and which QBs capitalize on them, and how a QB seeing and throwing to wide open guys reduces drops, etc. Those WRs were ALWAYS wide open on the film, but Garoppolo wasn't hitting him. The FILM tells the Brock Purdy story quite well, and the main reason the team scored 10 points per game more with him over Garoppolo is that Purdy was seeing and exploiting busted coverages that Garoppolo was not. Case in point: against the Broncos, Garoppolo had a wide open Deebo, which he would have hit had he been reading the defense post-snap, but he threw short instead. Meanwhile, against the Seahawks (second game), the 49ers ran a swing screen to McCaffrey, which was reasonably open, but they busted their coverage and left Kittle open on a corner route (which is designed to pull defenders away). Purdy saw it and exploited it, resulting in a touchdown.
This isn't quantified in your metric, and it explains why the 49ers suddenly and magically got ridiculously better when Purdy became the QB. Hint: the supporting cast didn't magically get better when Purdy took over. Purdy started throwing passes Garoppolo didn't. That's the difference. There were fewer drops because Purdy was throwing to more wide open guys, guys who were ALWAYS this wide open, but were never getting the ball. That last sentence is the difference.
AQE is such an awesome stat you've ruined regular old EPA/EPA per play for me. The box scores on Ben Baldwins site don't hit the same anymore.
I've pushed back a bit on some of your Fields analysis in large part due to how abysmal his supporting cast was this year. Purdy is obviously on the other end of that extreme, so it's fitting to me they're right next to each other in AQE, lol.
Dropping Purdy from 2nd to 15th seems quite reasonable, if not a bit conservative. It looks like his downward adjustment is twice as large as any QB other than Garoppolo, which really highlights how far the 49ers' environment is ahead of every other team.
Do you have AQE at the game level? My hunch says Purdy vs Seattle last week was the luckiest/most assisted game by any QB this season.
Danny Dimes quietly into the top 3 now... I don't know if that's sustainable but he's been better than anyone could have reasonably expected.
Any take on who the 49ers qb should be in 2023? (assuming Jimmy g hits fa)
I'd been waiting for your long form opinion (whether it was written or in a pod) on Purdy for weeks. The analysis here was terrific.
Here's the problem with this: it doesn't take into account missed opportunities on open WRs, and which QBs capitalize on them, and how a QB seeing and throwing to wide open guys reduces drops, etc. Those WRs were ALWAYS wide open on the film, but Garoppolo wasn't hitting him. The FILM tells the Brock Purdy story quite well, and the main reason the team scored 10 points per game more with him over Garoppolo is that Purdy was seeing and exploiting busted coverages that Garoppolo was not. Case in point: against the Broncos, Garoppolo had a wide open Deebo, which he would have hit had he been reading the defense post-snap, but he threw short instead. Meanwhile, against the Seahawks (second game), the 49ers ran a swing screen to McCaffrey, which was reasonably open, but they busted their coverage and left Kittle open on a corner route (which is designed to pull defenders away). Purdy saw it and exploited it, resulting in a touchdown.
This isn't quantified in your metric, and it explains why the 49ers suddenly and magically got ridiculously better when Purdy became the QB. Hint: the supporting cast didn't magically get better when Purdy took over. Purdy started throwing passes Garoppolo didn't. That's the difference. There were fewer drops because Purdy was throwing to more wide open guys, guys who were ALWAYS this wide open, but were never getting the ball. That last sentence is the difference.