I would not have guessed that the Chiefs would get adjusted ahead of the Eagles since the narrative is how 4 NFC East teams could make the playoffs and the AFC West is much worse than was expected. Interesting stuff.
I didn't post them all yet cause I'm still in QA to make sure the code don't have bugs. I whipped this all together rather quickly since I had to transition everything from PFF data. At the latest, I'll post all the power ranking numbers with an update next Tuesday. Thanks for reading!
You want all of my secrets!! I group the players broadly into premium and non-premium positions, then look for unit injuries, making the value loss for two players in the same position unit roughly 2.5x one player. I'll just say for now that EDGE, WR and tackles are the biggest ones for me. I want to QB the code some more before giving out the exact numbers. I'm also trying to bring more PFF grading into it, but I lost access to the granular detail on a PBP basis.
Asking for proprietary data is like asking out a girl; the worst that can happen is they say no!
Anyway, I think measuring positional value is one of the most intriguing analytical endeavors. It’s something that’s been a black hole for most of NFL history.
Notable that you don’t mention CB as a premium position. I tend to agree because CB’s can be taken out of the game by not throwing their direction, and their performance is highly volatile from year to year.
I would not have guessed that the Chiefs would get adjusted ahead of the Eagles since the narrative is how 4 NFC East teams could make the playoffs and the AFC West is much worse than was expected. Interesting stuff.
There’s another 73.3M fully guaranteed on Kyler’s deal (38m in 2023 and 35.3 of 2024 salary)
There are a bunch of rolling guarantees I didn't mention, but probably should have. Thanks for pointing this out. 👍
Kevin, any chance the power ranking numbers are available or am I blind?
This number, to be clear, for each team: Chiefs at +7.9
I didn't post them all yet cause I'm still in QA to make sure the code don't have bugs. I whipped this all together rather quickly since I had to transition everything from PFF data. At the latest, I'll post all the power ranking numbers with an update next Tuesday. Thanks for reading!
What are the base rates for premium positions in your injury adjustments?
You want all of my secrets!! I group the players broadly into premium and non-premium positions, then look for unit injuries, making the value loss for two players in the same position unit roughly 2.5x one player. I'll just say for now that EDGE, WR and tackles are the biggest ones for me. I want to QB the code some more before giving out the exact numbers. I'm also trying to bring more PFF grading into it, but I lost access to the granular detail on a PBP basis.
Asking for proprietary data is like asking out a girl; the worst that can happen is they say no!
Anyway, I think measuring positional value is one of the most intriguing analytical endeavors. It’s something that’s been a black hole for most of NFL history.
Notable that you don’t mention CB as a premium position. I tend to agree because CB’s can be taken out of the game by not throwing their direction, and their performance is highly volatile from year to year.