Those 3rd down numbers are fascinating. I don't think the "ceiling touts" (for lack of a better term) will ever be satisfied with Jimmy, but you make a really compelling case.
Side note: as a Tannehill truther, his drop-off bums me out.
Though I mostly disagree, it’s quite refreshing to read a well researched article about Jimmy. The public discourse would be so much more tolerable if we could all rely on facts rather than narratives.
Why I disagree…the Niners have led the league in YAC per reception every year since 2018, and two of those seasons were primarily quarterbacked by CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens. From a Bayesian perspective, we can infer that Jimmy doesn’t have any special ability to help his receivers gain YAC. That’s important when so much of Jimmy’s EPA value is derived from YAC.
I do agree that Jimmy is objectively a very good QB on third down. But on this Niners team specifically, I question how much that really matters. Third down conversions are paramount for the Chiefs, for example, because their defense can’t stop a nosebleed and the offense only gets 8 or 9 drives per game. But that’s not the case in San Fran. With a dominant defense, the Niners offense can afford a few extra punts per game without a major hit to their likelihood of winning.
Holy cow. What a fantastic analysis. It’s nice to read some of the things that those of us that are called “JimmyStans” or “JimmySexuals” appreciate about our quarterback, without necessarily having something beyond intuition that he’s actually a pretty damn good QB.
I often think that if he had made the throw in the SB, or hadn’t been injured in 2020, we would have a completely different view of who and what Jimmy is. So much of our opinion of a player is built on the self-perpetuating machine of pundit takes and fan takes based on those pundits. It’s sad, really.
Those 3rd down numbers are fascinating. I don't think the "ceiling touts" (for lack of a better term) will ever be satisfied with Jimmy, but you make a really compelling case.
Side note: as a Tannehill truther, his drop-off bums me out.
Though I mostly disagree, it’s quite refreshing to read a well researched article about Jimmy. The public discourse would be so much more tolerable if we could all rely on facts rather than narratives.
Why I disagree…the Niners have led the league in YAC per reception every year since 2018, and two of those seasons were primarily quarterbacked by CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens. From a Bayesian perspective, we can infer that Jimmy doesn’t have any special ability to help his receivers gain YAC. That’s important when so much of Jimmy’s EPA value is derived from YAC.
I do agree that Jimmy is objectively a very good QB on third down. But on this Niners team specifically, I question how much that really matters. Third down conversions are paramount for the Chiefs, for example, because their defense can’t stop a nosebleed and the offense only gets 8 or 9 drives per game. But that’s not the case in San Fran. With a dominant defense, the Niners offense can afford a few extra punts per game without a major hit to their likelihood of winning.
As always, a pleasure to read/hear your analysis 👏
Holy cow. What a fantastic analysis. It’s nice to read some of the things that those of us that are called “JimmyStans” or “JimmySexuals” appreciate about our quarterback, without necessarily having something beyond intuition that he’s actually a pretty damn good QB.
I often think that if he had made the throw in the SB, or hadn’t been injured in 2020, we would have a completely different view of who and what Jimmy is. So much of our opinion of a player is built on the self-perpetuating machine of pundit takes and fan takes based on those pundits. It’s sad, really.
Put some respect on his name, indeed.
#HimmyGuap